Major changes to prison release arrangements in England and Wales are due to take effect on 1 October 2026 under the Sentencing Act 2026. The new Progression Model will bring forward the statutory release point for many prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences (SDSs), with many eligible prisoners moving to release at one-third of their sentence and certain others moving from two-thirds to one-half.
The policy has, however, changed significantly during the months leading up to implementation. The Government initially proposed a wider application of the new release arrangements, but introduced exclusions for a number of serious offences. On 30 August 2026, those exclusions were expanded again to include manslaughter and a range of offences involving unlawful killing, deaths caused by dangerous driving, historic sexual offences and certain offences involving children.
The result is a system in which the headline figures do not tell the whole story. The new law does not simply cancel part of a prison sentence. It changes the statutory point at which eligible prisoners are released from custody, with the remainder of the sentence ordinarily served in the community on licence. At the same time, the Government is relying on probation, licence conditions and electronic monitoring to manage the additional people released into the community.
What is the Progression Model?
The Progression Model is a new permanent statutory framework governing the release of many adult prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences. An SDS is a fixed-term custodial sentence, where the prisoner serves part of the sentence in custody and normally serves the remainder on licence following release.
For prisoners whose existing automatic release point is 40% or 50%, the new statutory minimum release point will generally be one-third. For certain prisoners who would previously have been released at two-thirds, the new release point will become one-half. These are minimum release points: prisoners who receive added days as a disciplinary consequence for serious misconduct in custody can remain in prison beyond the basic one-third or one-half point. The precise application also depends upon the sentence, offence and applicable statutory regime, so the percentages should not be treated as universal rules for every determinate sentence.
This does not mean that a court imposing, for example, a six-year sentence has reduced that sentence to two years. The court’s sentence remains the sentence imposed. Parliament has instead changed the statutory rules governing when an eligible prisoner is released from custody, with the balance of the sentence ordinarily being served on licence in the community.
The new system should also be distinguished from SDS40, the emergency measure introduced in September 2024 which moved many eligible prisoners from a 50% release point to 40%. SDS40 was introduced in response to immediate prison-capacity pressures. The Progression Model is intended to provide a permanent statutory framework rather than another temporary emergency measure.
Life sentences and Extended Determinate Sentences are outside the Progression Model, together with other specified categories. The Government says that more than 18,000 prisoners serving more serious sentences such as life and EDS are already outside the new arrangements.
Why is the Government changing release arrangements?
The principal background is pressure on the prison estate. The prison population has increased substantially in recent years, while the available capacity within the estate has become increasingly constrained. Official figures recorded a prison population of 85,858 on 30 June 2026, against operational capacity of 89,120.
The Government’s argument is that continuing to accommodate rising numbers in custody without changing sentencing and release arrangements risks the prison system becoming unsustainable. Earlier release is therefore intended to reduce pressure inside prisons, while greater emphasis is placed on supervision and punishment in the community.
That does not remove the pressure; it changes where some of it is felt. Prisoners released earlier still require appropriate supervision, risk management and, where necessary, electronic monitoring and restrictive licence conditions. The effectiveness of the policy will therefore depend not only on prison capacity but also on the ability of probation and other services to manage the additional workload.
This is one reason the Government has adopted a phased implementation rather than releasing every eligible prisoner simultaneously. The first releases will take place in October, followed by further tranches through to June 2027.
The latest exclusions: what has changed?
The most significant recent development has been the expansion of the offences excluded from the Progression Model.
The Government initially announced that rape, certain serious child sexual offences and grooming offences would not benefit from the new arrangements. On 30 August 2026, the exclusion list was expanded to include manslaughter and a range of other specified offences relating to unlawful killing, deaths caused by dangerous or other specified forms of driving and cycling, offences under historic sexual-offences legislation including indecent assault, and specified offences involving children. The exclusion list also covers certain inchoate and equivalent service offences relating to the specified offences.
The exact statutory offence matters. The term “serious offence” is not itself the legal test for eligibility. The Ministry of Justice has published a detailed list identifying the offences and statutory provisions which are excluded. A prisoner’s eligibility therefore needs to be assessed against the actual conviction rather than a general description of the offence.
The inclusion of manslaughter is particularly significant because it removes a category of prisoners who would otherwise have fallen within the new determinate-sentence framework. In the case of PC Andrew Harper, Albert Bowers and Jessie Cole were convicted of manslaughter and received 13-year sentences, while Henry Long was also convicted of manslaughter but received an Extended Determinate Sentence. The EDS was already outside the scope of the Progression Model, while the new manslaughter exclusion means that Bowers and Cole are excluded from the new release arrangements because of their manslaughter convictions.
The exclusions have materially reduced the number of people expected to be released when the new system begins. The Ministry of Justice estimates that approximately 1,400 people who would otherwise have been included in the first-day implementation cohorts will instead be ineligible as a result of the new exclusions. This is a modelled estimate, rather than a final count.
What happens on 1 October?
The Progression Model was originally intended to begin on 2 September 2026, but implementation was postponed. The current commencement date is 1 October 2026. Eligible prisoners are being brought into the new system through ten implementation tranches rather than all being released on the first day.
The Ministry of Justice estimates approximately 700 first-day releases in the first tranche. A second tranche is estimated at approximately 650, with its first release day scheduled for 13 October. Together, these represent approximately 1,350 estimated first-day releases across the first two October tranches, subject to the operation of the eligibility rules and changes in the prison population.
The remaining first-day tranche estimates are 650, 550, 600, 500, 200, 200, 250 and 250. Together with the first two tranches, these figures total approximately 4,500 first-day releases between October 2026 and June 2027.
The figure of 4,500 needs to be understood correctly. It does not mean that only 4,500 prisoners will ever be released under the Progression Model, and it is not a cap on the number of prisoners who will benefit from the new regime. It is the Ministry’s estimate of the number released on the first day of each of the ten implementation tranches. Eligible releases continue after those first days as the new system becomes the ordinary statutory release regime.
The Ministry also makes clear that the figures are estimates, rounded to the nearest 50, and can change. New sentences, outstanding proceedings, added days and changes in the prison population can all affect the eventual numbers.
Does this mean prisoners serve only one-third?
No. This is one of the most important distinctions when explaining the reforms.
For an eligible prisoner whose statutory release point becomes one-third, that is the point at which the prisoner can ordinarily be released from custody under the new regime. The prisoner is then subject to the licence arrangements applicable to the sentence. Depending upon the circumstances of the case, licence conditions can impose significant restrictions on a person’s movements, residence, associations and activities. Breach of licence conditions can also result in recall to custody where the relevant legal requirements are met.
The court’s sentence is not simply rewritten as a shorter sentence. The change concerns the statutory release mechanism. A prisoner serving a six-year sentence does not receive a new two-year sentence; rather, if eligible, the statutory rules may permit release from custody after one-third, with the remainder of the sentence continuing to operate through the licence system.
There are also circumstances in which release will be later than the basic percentage might suggest. Prisoners can receive added days as a disciplinary consequence for serious misconduct in custody. Those additional custodial days can delay release beyond the ordinary release point. The legislation therefore does not create an unconditional entitlement for every eligible prisoner to leave custody at precisely one-third.
The reforms also remove Home Detention Curfew (HDC) as a route to early release for adult prisoners serving SDSs. HDC has historically allowed eligible prisoners to be released before their automatic release date, subject to curfew and electronic monitoring. Separate arrangements remain for certain offenders serving youth sentences and for other specified categories, so it would be inaccurate simply to describe HDC as being abolished in every context.
The pressure on probation
One of the central practical questions is what happens after prisoners leave custody. The Government says people released under the Progression Model will remain subject to strict licence conditions and intensive supervision, with additional investment in probation, community punishment and electronic monitoring.
There is nevertheless a significant existing workload. HMPPS figures for June 2026 recorded 5,445 full-time equivalent probation officers in post against a target of 7,380, representing a shortfall of 1,935 FTE officers. The figures also record substantial numbers of probation services officers and staff undertaking training to qualify as probation officers.
Those figures do not establish that the Progression Model will cause probation to become unmanageable. They do, however, explain why probation capacity has become one of the most important questions surrounding implementation. Earlier release increases the importance of effective risk assessment, supervision, enforcement and access to services in the community.
The Government has announced additional funding and recruitment measures in response. Whether those measures provide sufficient capacity will become clearer once the new release arrangements are operating. At present, it would be premature to state that the reforms will either improve or worsen public safety overall.
What does this mean for victims?
For victims, the most immediate concern is often whether a person convicted of an offence will return to the community sooner than previously expected.
The Government’s current guidance confirms that offenders released under the Progression Model will remain subject to licence conditions and supervision. Victims who are entitled to information through the relevant victim notification arrangements can be informed about changes to release dates and relevant licence conditions.
The Government has also announced additional electronic monitoring, with a presumption in favour of tagging for eligible prison leavers, alongside measures such as restriction zones and other licence conditions. These measures are intended to provide greater control over offenders following release.
Electronic monitoring, however, is only one part of a wider supervision system. A tag can monitor compliance with particular conditions, but it does not itself prevent offending. Effective risk assessment, probation supervision and enforcement remain essential.
The recent expansion of the offence exclusions demonstrates the extent to which victim concerns have influenced the final shape of the policy. Nevertheless, the existence of an exclusion for one offence does not mean every case involving serious offending will automatically be outside the scheme. The actual conviction, sentence and statutory provisions must still be considered.
What happens next?
The immediate test will be the implementation of the first tranche on 1 October 2026, followed by the further releases scheduled through the first half of 2027. The Government will need to manage the competing pressures of prison capacity, probation resources, victim protection and public confidence while ensuring that the statutory release rules are applied correctly.
It is also too early to make reliable claims about the effect of the Progression Model on crime or reoffending. There is currently no evidence capable of establishing that the new release arrangements will necessarily increase or reduce crime. Those effects will need to be assessed using evidence from the operation of the scheme over time.
For individual prisoners, the practical lesson is straightforward: the headline percentage is only the starting point. Eligibility can depend upon the precise offence, sentence, sentence structure, applicable release regime, exclusions, added days and transitional arrangements. A person’s actual release date should therefore be established from the relevant sentence and prison records rather than inferred from general media coverage.
For the criminal justice system as a whole, the reform represents a significant shift. Less time in custody for eligible prisoners is intended to relieve pressure on the prison estate, but it places greater importance on what happens after release. The success of the policy will therefore depend not simply upon how many prison places it creates, but upon whether the community supervision system can manage the additional responsibility effectively.
Frequently Asked Questions
When does the Progression Model start?
The current commencement date is 1 October 2026. Implementation will take place through phased tranches rather than all eligible prisoners being released on one day.
How many prisoners will be released in October?
The current timetable estimates approximately 700 first-day releases on 1 October and a further 650 first-day releases on 13 October, giving approximately 1,350 first-day releases across the first two October tranches. These are estimates and the actual numbers may change.
Is 4,500 the total number of prisoners being released?
No. The approximately 4,500 figure refers to estimated first-day releases across ten implementation tranches running from October 2026 to June 2027. It is not a cap on all future releases under the Progression Model.
Does every eligible prisoner leave prison after one-third of their sentence?
No. One-third is the new statutory minimum release point for many eligible SDS prisoners, but eligibility and the actual release calculation depend on the sentence, offence, applicable regime and other factors. Added days can also delay release.
Are manslaughter prisoners included?
No. Manslaughter has been added to the offences excluded from the Progression Model under the Government’s updated 30 August 2026 exclusion list.
Do life prisoners qualify?
No. Life sentences and Extended Determinate Sentences are outside the Progression Model, along with other specified categories.
Has HDC been abolished?
HDC is being removed for adult prisoners serving SDSs under the new Progression Model, although separate arrangements remain for certain young offenders.
How Empire Law Can Help
The Sentencing Act 2026 introduces significant changes to the way many determinate prison sentences operate. However, the effect of the reforms depends heavily upon the individual offence, sentence and applicable statutory provisions.
Empire Law can advise on criminal convictions and sentences, including issues arising from sentencing legislation, custodial sentences and release arrangements. Where a release date depends upon multiple sentences or different statutory regimes, specialist advice can help establish how the rules apply to the individual circumstances.
